RSI hit 92.22 this morning. That's not just overbought — that's screaming, flashing-red overbought. Every oscillator on the board is yelling sell. And yet the official signal for NZDIRR is buy.
Welcome to one of those moments where the technicals look like they were drawn by two different traders who've never met.
The Contradiction Nobody's Talking About
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / IRANIAN RIAL closed at 767,403 on February 22, down 0.34% from the open. Not a huge drop. The candle pattern is a hammer — classically bullish. Price action labeled bullish. Signal labeled buy.
Then you scroll down to the oscillators and it's like opening a different report.
- RSI: 92.22 — strong sell
- Stochastic: 93.95 — strong sell
- Ultimate Oscillator: 71.50 — sell
Three momentum indicators all pointing the same direction. Downward.
Moving Averages Don't Care About RSI
Here's where it gets interesting. The moving averages are completely ignoring the oscillator panic.
SMA 10 sits at 761,874 — price is above it, so that's a buy. SMA 25 is way down at 699,459. That's a strong buy because NZDIRR is trading miles above that line. EMA 10 at 753,797 also says strong buy.
So trend-following signals are bullish. Momentum signals are bearish. The official signal went with the trend.
Six-Month Performance Is Absurd
Let's talk about why this pair even matters. The six-month performance is 3,043%. Not a typo. Three thousand percent.
All-time high was 775,397 just a month ago. We're about 1% off that peak right now. This thing has been ripping higher for half a year, and momentum traders are finally tapping the brakes.
I pulled data using FCS API to track this move, and the velocity on this pair has been bonkers since August. That kind of run doesn't reverse cleanly. It chops. It consolidates. It fakes you out both ways.
Pivot Points Show Tight Range
Woodie pivot puts resistance at 770,716 and support at 768,071. That's a 2,600-point range — tight for a pair trading near 770k.
Demark pivot has R1 at 770,187 and S1 at 767,542. Even tighter. We're sitting right in the middle of that sandwich.
If you're looking for a breakout trade, you need to see price crack above 770,700 or fall below 767,500. Until then it's just noise.
Which Signal Do You Trust?
This is where most people freeze. Oscillators screaming sell, moving averages screaming buy. What do you do?
I lean toward the trend. RSI can stay overbought for weeks in a strong uptrend. I've seen it sit above 80 for a month straight. Doesn't mean the move is over. It means momentum is strong — which is what you want if you're long.
The hammer candle is also worth respecting. That pattern shows buyers stepped in after an intraday dip. They defended the lower prices. That's not bearish behavior.
But here's the thing. If you're entering now, you're buying near the all-time high after a 3,000% run. The risk-reward isn't great unless you're swing trading with a tight stop.
The Setup I'd Actually Trade
I'm not touching this until we get confirmation one way or the other. Either price breaks above 775,400 and proves the trend is still alive, or it drops below 760,000 and confirms the oscillators were right.
If you're already long from lower levels, I'd trail a stop under 765,000. That keeps you in the trade but protects against a momentum reversal.
If you want to check live data and track this pair in real time, the currency converter handles exotic pairs like this without the usual data lag. I use it when I need quick conversions on thin pairs where spreads can eat you alive.
For anyone building algo strategies around this kind of contradiction, the forex API pulls clean oscillator and moving average data so you can code your own confluence rules. I wouldn't trust the default signal blindly — write your own logic.
My Take
The official signal says buy but I'm not pulling the trigger here. RSI at 92 is a flashing yellow light. Maybe the trend keeps going — trends do that — but I don't love the entry.
I'd rather wait for a pullback to 750,000 or a breakout above 775,000. Right now it's too messy. The oscillators and moving averages are in a fistfight and I'm not stepping in the middle of it.
If you're hunting for more setups like this, the blog covers weird pairs and divergence plays pretty regularly. Worth a look if you trade the stuff nobody else watches.
