Bitcoin dropped to $68,284 today. The signal says sell with a -52.8 score. Price action says bullish. That's the whole mess right there.
The Signal Nobody Wants to See
A sell signal at -52.8 isn't a whisper. That's loud. Bitcoin opened at $68,792 and slid 0.74% by close. Not a crash, just steady pressure down. The kind that doesn't make headlines but eats at your position all day.
I've held through worse signals. Much worse. But this one sits in an ugly spot — below every major moving average that matters. SMA 100 at $87,350. SMA 200 at $100,330. EMA 200 at $93,857. Bitcoin's trading $25,000 below the 200-day simple moving average. That's not a dip. That's a different market.
The weekly performance shows -2.83%. Month-high was $95,497. We're down $27,000 from that peak. You can call it consolidation if it helps you sleep. I call it what the chart shows.
What the Oscillators Actually Say
ADX reads 56.26 — strong buy territory. Parabolic SAR at $61,803 also screams buy. So we've got sell signals from price position and buy signals from momentum indicators. Classic technical analysis giving you both sides of the trade at once.
ADX measures trend strength, not direction. A reading above 50 means whatever's happening is happening hard. Right now that's a downtrend with strong momentum characteristics. The Parabolic SAR sitting below price suggests the trend could flip, but it's been wrong before.
I've learned to trust price over indicators when they split like this. Indicators lag. Price is what you actually pay. Bitcoin's trading below every long-term average while short-term momentum shows strength. That's usually a bounce inside a larger move down, not a reversal.
Support Levels That Might Actually Hold
Demark pivot support sits at $66,971. Classic pivot support at $67,577. We're hovering just above both right now. If Bitcoin breaks below $67K clean, next real support is.. I don't know. The charts get messy down there.
Resistance shows up at $69,866 on Demark, $70,473 on classic pivots. We tested that range three times this week and got rejected each time. Strong resistance becomes strong support when it breaks, but we haven't broken it yet.
Bollinger Bands have the middle at $76,160. Bitcoin's at the 34th percentile of the band range. That means it's closer to the bottom band than the top. Not oversold, just consistently pressured. The bands aren't squeezing tight, so no imminent volatility explosion coming from that signal.
What I'm Watching Next Week
The $67K level matters more than anything else right now. Hold above it and maybe we build a base here. Maybe the momentum indicators are right and we're setting up a move back to $75K. I'm not betting on it, but I'm watching for it.
Break below $67K and I think we test $60K faster than most people expect. The moving averages all point down. The signal's already at sell. Price action being bullish doesn't mean much when you're this far below where the market was trading just weeks ago.
For anyone building positions here — and I know some of you are — dollar-cost averaging below $70K isn't the worst idea if you believe in the long-term case. But understand you're catching a falling knife while it's still falling. The crypto API data from FCS API shows this clearly across all timeframes.
The Forecast Nobody Can Make
Where's Bitcoin going in 2026? I don't know. Nobody knows. But I know where it is now — below major support levels with a sell signal and declining momentum on the weekly chart. That's not bullish.
Could it rip to $100K by March? Sure. Could it drop to $50K first? Also sure. The technical setup suggests more downside than upside short-term, but Bitcoin's done dumber things than rally on bad technicals. Check the FCS API pricing if you want real-time signals instead of guessing.
My take right now: wait for a cleaner setup. This price action looks like a bull trap inside a bear trend. The kind of move that fakes you into thinking the bottom's in, then drops another 15% and makes you question everything.
I'm not shorting it. But I'm not buying it either. Not here. Not with every long-term moving average overhead acting as resistance. If it breaks back above $75K with volume, I'll change my mind. Until then, this is a sell signal at $68K that I'm actually listening to.
