Solana closed today at $84.81. Not a disaster. Not a moonshot. Just sitting there, down 0.27% from open. Price action still looks bullish on the chart. But the signal? High-confidence sell. Score of -50.4.
That disconnect is the whole story right now. You can see bullish momentum in the candles. Normal patterns. Nothing dramatic. But underneath, the indicators are screaming the opposite direction.
The ADX Problem
ADX sits at 59.9. That's a strong trend reading. Over 25 means trend, over 50 means really strong trend. So we have confirmation — something is moving with conviction.
But here's where it gets messy. The ADX tells you trend strength, not direction. It's reading "strong" while the price is sliding away from its moving averages. EMA 100 is at $125.92. EMA 200 at $144.10. Solana is trading nearly $41 below the 100-day and $59 below the 200-day.
Those aren't small gaps. That's not "finding support and bouncing". That's a coin that ran hard earlier and gave it all back. The one-month high was $134.54. We're down 37% from there in four weeks.
ADX says strong. Moving averages say sell. MACD is barely positive at -9.30, technically a buy but not by much. Everything else? Bearish.
Volatility at 7.95%
ATR percentage is sitting at 7.95%. That's high. For context, anything over 5% on a major coin means you're in choppy water. This isn't a slow bleed or a calm grind higher — it's swinging.
High volatility doesn't pick a side. It just means the next move could be big in either direction. With a sell signal and prices below all major moving averages, the next big move probably isn't up.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| ADX | 59.95 | Strong Buy |
| MACD | -9.30 | Buy |
| EMA 100 | 125.92 | Strong Sell |
| EMA 200 | 144.10 | Strong Sell |
| SMA 100 | 124.39 | Strong Sell |
Every moving average is a strong sell. Not mixed. Not neutral. Strong. That's the weight pulling this thing down.
Fibonacci Says Watch $83.38
Fibonacci support comes in at $83.38. We're about $1.43 above that right now. Not much cushion. If that breaks, next stop is probably lower. Resistance? Fibonacci puts R1 at $86.99. We tested that level earlier this week and bounced off.
Camarilla pivots are tighter. R1 at $85.47, S1 at $84.61. We're already through S1 and sitting near the bottom of today's expected range. That's not where you want to be if you're holding.
The pivot systems aren't making bold predictions. They're just saying "here's the zone". And right now Solana is hanging out near the lower edge of that zone with a high-confidence sell signal.
Why I'm Not Buying This Dip
I've bought Solana dips before. Made money on a few. Lost on others. This one feels different. The moving averages are too far overhead. The sell signal has high confidence. The trend strength indicator is saying something strong is happening — and it's not upward momentum.
You could argue the MACD is positive. Fine. It's barely there. You could say price action looks bullish. Sure, in isolation. But stack up everything else and it's a no for me.
If you want real-time crypto data to track these setups yourself, FCS API has the infrastructure. I use it because the signals come with confidence scores, not just buy/sell labels. That matters when you're trying to avoid the traps.
The All-Time Low Reminder
Solana's all-time low was $0.21. It's at $84.81 now. That's still a massive gain from the bottom. But it's also down from $134 a month ago and way below its 200-day average. Context matters.
Some coins never recover from these drops. Some do. Solana has survived worse. But right now, the technicals aren't supporting a bounce. They're supporting more downside.
The volatility means it could rip higher tomorrow. Crypto does that. But probability? I'm betting it tests that $83.38 support before it challenges $87 resistance. And if $83 breaks, there's not much underneath until you start looking at round numbers in the 70s.
What I'm Watching
I want to see the EMA 100 start to flatten or curl down. If the moving average starts catching up to price, that's a signal the downtrend might be slowing. Right now, price is running away from the averages in the wrong direction.
I also want the MACD to either commit or quit. It's sitting in no-man's-land. Either cross positive with conviction or roll over. This in-between reading is useless for planning a trade.
ADX above 60 is strong. But if it stays elevated while price keeps drifting down, that just confirms the bearish trend has legs. I'm not fighting that until something breaks.
You can track all this live with crypto API pricing that fits whatever scale you're working at. I check the data multiple times a day during volatile periods like this. Not because I'm glued to the screen, but because the setups change fast.
The sell signal is clear. The confidence is high. The moving averages agree. What more do you need to see before you stop trying to catch this knife?
