The signal says Strong Buy. The stochastic screams Strong Sell. Cityvarasto Oyj closed at €18 yesterday, down 1.4%, and I've got two contradicting data points staring back at me.
The Numbers Don't Line Up
Parabolic SAR sits at 16.906 — Strong Buy territory. EMA 10 at 17.7679 and EMA 25 at 17.4502, both giving green lights. Price opened at 18.26 and drifted lower through the session. Bullish price action, Medium confidence rating, but that Stochastic K% at 90.1961 is waving red flags.
I've been tracking Finnish small caps through FCS API for two years now. This pattern — Strong Buy signal with an overbought oscillator — usually means one of two things: either momentum's about to crack, or the rally's got more room than the math suggests.
ATR at 0.4317 shows decent volatility. The 1-month range between 16.32 and 18.5 tells me this stock moves. Current price is kissing the upper end of that range. Not at the high, but close enough to make me twitchy.
Pivot Points and Support Levels
| Type | R1 | Pivot | S1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 18.2933 | 18.1867 | 18.1333 |
| Fibonacci | 18.2478 | 18.1867 | 18.1255 |
Classic pivot at 18.1867 means we're barely above neutral. First resistance at 18.29 — less than 2% upside before hitting a wall. Fibonacci S1 at 18.1255 is uncomfortably close. If support breaks, I'm watching for a quick drop toward that 16.906 Parabolic SAR level.
Why I'm Not Buying Yet
That Stochastic K% bothers me. 90.1961 is deep into overbought. I've bought into Strong Buy signals before when oscillators were screaming caution. Lost 8% on a Swedish logistics play in 2024 doing exactly that. Learned my lesson.
The moving averages look clean — both EMAs trending up, price above both. But price action being "bullish" doesn't mean it stays that way. ATR percentage at 2.3668 means daily swings of 2-3% are normal here. That's a lot of noise for an €18 stock.
If you're checking market data daily like I am, you'll notice Finnish stocks have been choppy this month. Cityvarasto's down 1.4% today after opening higher. That's not panic selling, but it's not conviction buying either.
What Happens Next
I'm waiting for that Stochastic to cool off. Either it drops back under 80 and confirms the dip is buyable, or price pushes through 18.29 resistance and proves the momentum's real. Right now it's stuck.
Medium confidence on this signal means even the algorithm isn't sure. I don't trade Medium confidence setups unless I've got a strong read on the sector. I don't have that here. Finnish warehouse REITs aren't my specialty, and I'm not pretending they are.
For traders using real-time technical feeds, watch how price behaves around that 18.1867 pivot Monday morning. Break above 18.29 on volume and I'll reconsider. Drift below 18.12 and I'm out completely.
The one-month low at 16.32 is still fresh. That's a 9% drop from current levels if support fails. I'm not risking that for a 1-2% scalp to resistance. Do you buy the Strong Buy signal here or wait for confirmation from the oscillator?