Price sits at 210.64. Signal screams strong sell with a score of -60.6. Meanwhile the stock's up today by 0.086%. That's the problem right there — movement doesn't match direction.
I've seen this before. The disconnect between what price does intraday and where the broader structure points creates exactly the kind of setup that ruins portfolios. Not because people are stupid, but because they pick one data point and run with it.
The Moving Average Problem
SMA 100 sits at 228.146. That's 17.5 points above current price. EMA 100 at 225.391 tells the same story. Price is trading well below both, which is why the signal registers as strong sell.
Short-term looks different. SMA 10 comes in at 204.785 — price already cleared that. You get a strong buy signal from the 10-period average. So which one matters?
Both matter, and that's the trap. Short-term strength inside long-term weakness. You buy the bounce, thinking you caught the turn. Then the 100-day average acts like gravity and pulls everything back down.
I did this with a different stock in 2024. Bought the 10-day crossover, ignored the 100-day gap. Lost 11% in three weeks. The setup looked exactly like this — bullish price action, strong downtrend signal, high volatility.
Volatility Numbers Don't Lie
ATR at 6.5653 gives you a buy signal, but ATR percentage tells the real story. 3.1479% volatility is high. That's daily swings of 6-7 dollars on average.
High volatility during a strong sell signal means bigger losses when the move goes against you. Bollinger position at 37.13% puts price in the lower third of the band. Middle band sits at 220.922 — another 10 points above current price.
Stochastic K at 32 signals oversold, which usually means a bounce. But oversold can stay oversold. RSI at 42.37 sits neutral, not confirming the stochastic read. When momentum indicators disagree, I trust neither.
What the Six-Month Chart Actually Says
Performance over six months: -8.94%. That's after hitting an all-time high of 258.6 at some point in history. From that peak to today's 210.64, you're looking at an 18.5% drawdown.
The stock opened today at 210.46. Barely moved. That's not strength, that's indecision. Pivot points show resistance at 212.115 (Woodie R1) and support at 205.005 (Woodie S1). Trading range of about 7 points.
When a stock sits this far below its moving averages with high volatility and narrow daily range, the next big move usually continues the trend. And the trend here is down.
The Risk You're Not Pricing In
Let's say you buy at 210.64 because the 10-day average says strong buy and the stochastic looks oversold. What's your downside?
- Support at 205.005 gives you 5.6 points of cushion
- 100-day averages suggest fair value around 225-228
- ATR says daily moves of 6.5 points are normal
- Six-month trend is negative 8.94%
Your risk-reward doesn't work. You might catch a 5-10 point bounce to the middle Bollinger band at 220.922. That's a 4.9% gain if you time it perfect. But if support breaks, next stop could be another ATR lower — around 204.
I'm not saying the stock can't rally. Price action today is bullish, candle pattern is normal. But bullish price action inside a strong downtrend just sets up better short entries for people smarter than me. Check stock API documentation if you want to track this stuff in real time instead of guessing.
When Signals Conflict This Hard
Strong sell signal with bullish short-term indicators means you're picking a side. Either you believe the 100-day structure matters, or you think the 10-day momentum will override it.
I've learned the hard way that longer timeframes usually win. Not always — sometimes you get a V-shaped reversal and the 10-day crossover was the signal. But most of the time, when you're this far below the 100-day average, you drift back down.
The -60.6 signal score isn't just bearish, it's strongly bearish. That score factors in more than just moving averages. It's considering the oscillators, the pivot structure, the volatility. And it's telling you the weight of evidence leans one direction.
You can fade that if you want. But then you're trading against the trend with high volatility and questionable reward relative to risk. I've made that trade before. It works until it doesn't, and when it doesn't, it costs more than the previous three wins combined.
What I'd Watch Instead of Buying
If you're bullish, wait for price to reclaim the EMA 100 at 225.391. That's 7% higher from here. If it gets there with confirming volume and momentum, then maybe the trend is changing.
Or wait for support at 205.005 to actually hold through a test. Right now it hasn't been tested this week. Support isn't real until someone steps in and defends it.
Resistance levels:
| Level | Distance | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 212.115 | +0.7% | Woodie R1 |
| 220.922 | +4.9% | Bollinger Middle |
| 225.391 | +7.0% | EMA 100 |
| 228.146 | +8.3% | SMA 100 |
That's a lot of overhead. Each level is a place sellers can reload. Each level failed recently or the price wouldn't be down here. You're not buying at support, you're buying in the middle of the range after a six-month downtrend.
The setup might work for a day trade if you catch a bounce off 205 toward 212. But as a position trade, the API pricing plans show you can track this cheaper than holding through drawdown. Risk is skewed wrong.
