Bitcoin's market cap crossed $1.35 trillion today and you'd think that's bullish. It's not. Up 1.1% from yesterday's open, sure, but every serious moving average is screaming sell. The SMA 100 sits at $1.71 trillion — we're trading 21% below that. EMA 25 is at $1.45 trillion. We're under both.
This is what a dead cat bounce looks like when you zoom out. Short-term traders see green and think rally. The rest of us see a market cap that hasn't cleared resistance in weeks.
The Signal Doesn't Care About Your Feelings
Signal score is -51.8. That's a sell, not a "wait and see" or "maybe". A sell. The overall signal confirms it. Price action says bullish but that's noise — one day of upward movement doesn't erase weeks of structural weakness.
RSI hit 36.6, technically a buy signal in oversold territory. But RSI alone is useless. Stochastic K% sits at 47.8, leaning sell. When momentum indicators contradict each other like this, I trust the moving averages more. They don't lie about where the money's been flowing.
The Woodie pivot has resistance at $1.355 trillion and support at $1.322 trillion. We opened right between them. Classic pivot points put resistance at $1.352 trillion. We're testing that ceiling right now and I don't think we break it.
Everyone Forgot the All-Time Low
Market cap bottomed at $2.09 billion once. Yeah, billion. That was years ago but it's still logged in the data. Makes you realize how far this thing has come. Also makes you realize how far it can fall when momentum shifts.
We're up 2.27% over the past week. Not terrible but not impressive either. If you're tracking crypto API data like I do through FCS API, you've seen this pattern before — small rallies that fizzle out when they hit moving average resistance.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SMA 100 | $1.715T | Strong Sell |
| EMA 25 | $1.455T | Strong Sell |
| RSI | 36.6 | Buy |
| Stochastic K% | 47.8 | Sell |
What This Means for You
If you're holding, you're underwater relative to where this thing was trading a month ago. If you're thinking about entering, you're catching a knife. The moving averages are clear. The signal score is clear. The only thing that's unclear is why people keep fighting this trend.
I've been wrong before. Plenty of times. But when the SMA 100 and EMA 25 both point down and the Market Cap BTC price today is still climbing, that's not bullish divergence. That's denial. Check API pricing plans if you want to track this yourself — I'm not telling you what to do, just showing you what the numbers say.
The one-week performance of 2.27% sounds okay until you realize it took seven days to gain what a real rally does in one. Momentum is missing. Volume isn't confirming the move. And the candle pattern today? Normal. Nothing special. Just another day of sideways chop masquerading as a breakout.
The Bigger Picture Nobody Wants to Talk About
Bitcoin's market cap is a decent proxy for overall crypto sentiment. When BTC market cap struggles to hold $1.35 trillion, everything else feels it. Alts bleed harder. Stablecoins see more inflows. People rotate into cash or sit on the sidelines.
The Woodie pivot support at $1.322 trillion is the line in the sand. We break that and the next stop is psychological — probably $1.3 trillion flat. That's another 4% down from here. Doesn't sound like much but in crypto that's a bad week.
I'm not saying this market cap forecast 2026 is doomed. I'm saying the setup right now favors sellers. If you're long, you're fighting the tape. If you're short, you're betting on math not hope. Read more crypto analysis if you want to see how this plays out across other assets — the pattern is everywhere, not just BTC.
Market Cap BTC hits $1.35 trillion in February 2026, and by March it's either clearing $1.4 trillion or retesting $1.25 trillion — no middle ground.
