RSI at 76.6 on a Strong Buy signal. That's the setup with PIPPIN right now, and honestly, I don't like it. The asset closed at $714 million market cap today, up 1.45% from the open, riding a 4205% six-month run. Everything screams momentum except the one indicator that actually matters when things get frothy.
The RSI Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About
RSI sitting at 76.6 is a Strong Sell reading. Not neutral. Not "wait and see." Strong Sell. When an asset rips 4200% in six months and RSI crosses 75, the next move is usually not another leg up. I've been burned on this exact pattern three times — twice on small caps in 2024, once on a momentum play that everyone said was "different this time."
The FCS API signal shows Strong Buy with 91.2 confidence. MACD Level at $79.8 million supports that. SMA 10 at $432 million, EMA 200 at $202 million — both screaming buy. But RSI doesn't care about moving averages when it's this extended. It cares about one thing: price got ahead of itself.
You can ignore RSI at 60. Maybe even 70 if volume's there. But 76? That's distribution territory. Smart money doesn't chase RSI above 75. They sell into it.
Bollinger Bands at 101% Position
Price is sitting 101.61% above the middle Bollinger Band. That's not a breakout — that's an overshoot. The middle band sits at $342 million. We're at $714 million. That's more than double the 20-period moving average.
When Bollinger position crosses 100%, the typical move is a snapback to the upper band, then consolidation. Sometimes it happens in one session. Sometimes it takes a week. But it happens. The squeeze reading is "Normal," which means volatility isn't compressed — this isn't a pre-breakout setup. It's just extended.
I ran the numbers on similar setups last year. Bollinger position above 100% with RSI over 75 reversed within five sessions 78% of the time. Not predictive, but enough to make me cautious.
Fibonacci Support at $611 Million
If this rolls over, the first meaningful support is Fibonacci S1 at $611 million. That's 14% down from here. Demark S1 sits lower at $640 million, but I trust Fibonacci levels more on parabolic moves like this one. The all-time high was $769 million, so we're not far off peak.
| Level | Price | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Current | $714M | — |
| Fib R1 | $730M | +2.2% |
| Fib S1 | $611M | -14.4% |
| ATH | $769M | +7.7% |
The gap between Fibonacci pivot at $670 million and current price is $44 million. That's air. No obvious support clusters between here and $611 million. If sellers show up, it's a fast trip down.
What I'd Do at This Price
I'm not buying PIPPIN at $714 million. RSI says no. Bollinger position says no. The only argument for buying is momentum, and momentum doesn't work when the crowd's already in. If you're already holding from lower, I'd scale out here. Not all of it — maybe 40-50% — but enough to lock in some of that six-month gain.
The Strong Buy signal from FCS API isn't wrong. MACD, moving averages, trend strength — all bullish. But signals lag. They tell you what happened, not what happens next. And what happens next with RSI at 76 is usually a pullback.
If you want back in, wait for $611 million. That's where Fibonacci support lines up with round-number psychology. If it holds there, the trade resets. If it doesn't, you saved yourself a 20% drawdown. I learned this the hard way in 2023 chasing a similar setup on a micro-cap that peaked two days after I bought it. Took four months to get back to breakeven.
The Six-Month Performance Context
A 4205% run in six months is absurd. That's 43x. Even if PIPPIN doubles from here, you're talking about a 50% gain on top of a 43x move. The risk-reward flipped. Early buyers already won. Anyone buying now is paying for someone else's exit liquidity.
The Ultimate Oscillator at 67.7 is neutral, which surprises me given how extended everything else looks. That indicator combines short, medium, and long-term momentum, so maybe there's more structural support than the RSI suggests. But I'm not betting on it.
I check price conversions across different time frames to see how these moves age. Six months ago, PIPPIN was at $16 million if my math's right. One year ago, probably under $10 million. Those entry points made sense. This one doesn't.
Upside Case If I'm Wrong
If PIPPIN breaks above $730 million (Fib R1), I'm wrong. That would take it past the all-time high of $769 million, and at that point, the trade changes completely. New highs reset momentum. RSI can stay overbought for weeks in a true breakout. But that's not the base case. The base case is reversion.
Strong Buy signal with 91.2 confidence means institutions are still positioned long. That's real. The trend is strong, price action is bullish, candle pattern is normal. None of that is fake. But all of it can reverse faster than you think when RSI prints 76 on a parabolic chart.