It’s not the hammer candle or the weak buy signal that matters today. It’s a single number buried in the moving averages: 1.16855.
That’s the SMA 100. It’s flashing a strong buy signal while the current price sits nearly two hundred pips above it at 1.18558. The gap tells you everything about where this pair wants to go next.
The Contradiction in Plain Sight
Look at today's data from an FCS API feed. The overall signal is a weak buy. Price action is bullish. But the oscillators are mostly selling.
- Stochastic K%: Sell
- MACD Level: Sell
- ATR: Strong Buy (but that's just volatility)
The market can't decide what it wants to do in the short term. That's why confidence is low.
This is where you ignore the noise. The long-term trend is strong, and that 100-period simple average is your anchor. It held as the one-month low of 1.15729 and now acts as a massive floor.
A pullback to test that SMA isn't just possible; it's the cleanest trade setup on the board right now.
Why Current Price Action Is Misleading
The price opened at 1.1875 and drifted down to 1.18558 for a minor loss. That's fine.
The hammer pattern suggests buyers stepped in near the lows of today's range, but with volatility low and Bollinger Bands in a normal squeeze, there's no explosive move coming imminently.
| Level | Type | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18762 | Demark R1 | Resistance |
| 1.18617 | Pivot Point | — |
| 1.18385 | Demark S1 | Support |
The immediate battleground is tight, confined between those Demark levels. Breaking above R1 needs momentum this market doesn't have yet.
The Simple Path Forward for EURUSD
The forecast for 2026 starts with respecting levels that actually mean something.
- The ultimate target for any dip is the SMA 100 at 1.16855.
- A weekly close above last week's open near 1.18185 (the EMA 25) would confirm short-term strength.
- The one-week performance of +0.39% shows there's underlying bid, but it's fragile.
Trying to trade every wiggle around 1.185 is a waste of time when a much clearer level sits below, waiting to be tested.Check your exposure with a currency converter tool first if you're unsure on sizing.
The real question isn't if EURUSD will rally today.It’s whether you have the data feeds ready to spot a true test of major support when it finally happens.
